Operational Analysis
Operational Analysis is a decision-support tool for Commanders and staffs to assess and/or predict outcomes in both simple complex environments. This can range from analysing likely combat outcomes to understanding the likely cognitive effects of Information Activity and Outreach.
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On exercises and training courses models are constructed usingrelevant objective and subjective measures to understand:
1. Combat Outcomes
2. Understanding Strategic and Operational Effects
3. Assessing Information Activities and Outreach Assessment
4. Understanding the effects of Information Warfare
5. Assuring feasibility, effectiveness and training-audience credibility of scenario development and dynamic scripting
Why you need Operational Analysis?
One of the major challenges to military planners is the understanding of large volumes of data and how multiple factors can impact on military and wider outcomes. In many Armies the lack of Major Combat Experience makes the understanding of even relatively simple force or force scenarios less intuitive than it was a decade ago. An evidence-based approach allows Commanders significantly better insight into unfamiliar issues such as massed Joint Fires, multi-layer targeting and Information Activity focused on strategically removing legitimacy or undermining morale at the tactical level.
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Background
Operational Analysis has developed from the systematic examination of
a tactic or other military procedure usually by mathematical and
statistical methods to determine its efficiency and to devise or
indicate possible improvements. ’
OA now also uses comparative doctrine, societal and historical
techniques to match the scientific aspects to the environment and
human factors that can be decisive in war and military operations.
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Accuracy
The accuracy of OA depends on the amount of time, information and
processing capacity available. The use of robust modeling, listing of
assumptions and giving users confidence levels empowers Commanders and their Staffs to make more effective plans. Today’s conflict is
decided on across the range of operating spectrums from physical,
through electronic through to cognitive and modeling reaches beyond
simple combat calculations and now draws upon societal, political,
psychological and business influence sources.
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Operational Analysis in the classified and unclassified domains
OA can be used both in the classified and unclassified domains.
Typically, the inclusion of sensitive intelligence will take place
mostly on operations. OSINT and wider information is used primarily
for education and training although classified information can be
included if the exercise structure allows it.